AI PCs aren't driving sales — The need to upgrade from Windows 10 will drive 2025 laptop sales

HP
(Image credit: HP)

Researchers (via TrendForce) say laptop sales are expected to grow by 4.9% next year, reaching 183 million units globally. Aside from improved political and economic conditions in the U.S., Windows 10’s end-of-life will be the primary driver for this increase in sales, especially as commercial entities look to upgrade their devices to stay secure and updated.

The report contradicts what some hardware manufacturers say: AI PCs, like Arm-powered laptops, will make a huge push and take a massive market share in the PC industry. TrendFroce highlighted, "The impact of AI-integrated notebooks on the overall market remains limited for now.”

Since introducing chips with AI capabilities, this has remained true over the past several months. IDC Research said in September that people purchase AI PCs not for their on-device neural processing capabilities but because they’re what’s available. Even Microsoft’s much-touted Copilot+ PC accounted for less than 10% of shipments in the third quarter of 2024. Even so, researchers believe that AI notebooks will have a slow but steady market penetration, especially as manufacturers integrate them into every laptop they offer.

2024 hasn’t been exactly a great year for the laptop market. Although shipments are predicted to make a 3.9% year-on-year until the end of December, reaching 174 million units, the commercial market had limited growth due to global layoffs and political instability. On the other hand, consumer laptop demand has been primarily driven by promotions, driving the sales of entry-level laptops.

TrendForce says consumer notebook shipments will cool to 3% next year, but it sees more sales in high-end models offering better margins. This is likely true as Nvidia is poised to launch its RTX 50-series GPUs for desktops and laptops in early 2025. Aside from this, Chromebook sales are also expected to grow by 8%, primarily as Japan launches its GIGA School 2.0 initiative, which aims to provide one laptop per child in the country.

However, there is still some uncertainty over the Trump presidency, especially as many fear that his administration will impose tariffs that could stifle demand in the U.S., especially as its East Asian rival still owns about 89% of the global laptop production. While some manufacturers are leaving China for friendlier countries like Vietnam and Mexico, it will take time to set up production and logistics in a new country, so any abrupt policy changes could shock the market, thus changing the forecasted growth of the laptop market.

Jowi Morales
Contributing Writer

Jowi Morales is a tech enthusiast with years of experience working in the industry. He’s been writing with several tech publications since 2021, where he’s been interested in tech hardware and consumer electronics.

  • Sleepy_Hollowed
    Absolutely no one needs these.
    Reply
  • hotaru251
    "ai pc" was just attempt at monetizing "ai"because surprise surprise....most people dont care and these companies are spending so much to invest and use it and they want to make profit from it.

    outside niche uses (i.e. having an it move a bunch of data from a file to a doc w/ structure) theres no real world use for it to any normal person.
    Reply
  • DS426
    The commercial PC market is also slower to get AI PC's and more often than not, it's clearly an upselling tactic as they come with a noticeable price premium.

    I don't think commercial AI PC sales can even be practically evaluated for market penetration until the end of Q1 2025.
    Reply
  • tommo1982
    There's also lack of trust in AI as a tool to mine data by the companies and monetize on their users. An AI would be useful as addition to video games, i.e. NPC's, or controling home appliances. The second needs to be local and never connected to the internet, otherwise one is asking to be hacked or abused by the manufacturers.
    Reply
  • RxBrad
    While I don't disagree with the likelihood of this, I'm mostly just impressed by Tom's ability to predict the future.
    The need to upgrade from Windows 10 drove 2025 laptop sales
    Reply
  • Kamen Rider Blade
    AI is a gimmick, the vast majority of people see it for what it is.

    There shouldn't be any surprise that it's effects are minor.
    Reply
  • jp7189
    tommo1982 said:
    There's also lack of trust in AI as a tool to mine data by the companies and monetize on their users. An AI would be useful as addition to video games, i.e. NPC's, or controling home appliances. The second needs to be local and never connected to the internet, otherwise one is asking to be hacked or abused by the manufacturers.
    "Works with Alexa" is ubiquitous, and pretty much the opposite of everything you just said.
    Reply
  • bourgeoisdude
    Sleepy_Hollowed said:
    Absolutely no one needs these.
    Ditto.

    Even Co-Pilot does not require an "AI PC". As someone who works in IT, I have only had one question about it, along the lines of "What is the benefit of an AI PC?" I honestly didn't have a good answer for them.
    Reply
  • tommo1982
    jp7189 said:
    "Works with Alexa" is ubiquitous, and pretty much the opposite of everything you just said.
    I know. I never had Alexa or Siri. When I read it needs to be connected to servers it was instant no-go.
    NPU's in recent AMD and Intel CPU's are said to be enough to drive local simple AI. Haven't heard actually anyone advertising on that.
    Reply
  • tommo1982
    bourgeoisdude said:
    Ditto.

    Even Co-Pilot does not require an "AI PC". As someone who works in IT, I have only had one question about it, along the lines of "What is the benefit of an AI PC?" I honestly didn't have a good answer for them.
    I read through advertisement on some of the AI enabled laptops and couldn't answer what is this AI for, to myself.
    Reply