Intel Core Ultra 7 265K CPU is currently priced at a record low of $269

Thursday night a huge package was waiting for me at the doorstep, when I was only expecting a set of fans and hot-swap drive cages. As I opened the box, it became obvious, orders had gotten swapped and somebody else's week-end probably got ruined, who was hoping to build a new system around an i7-14700KF, including mainboard, RAM, fans and power supply.

It got me curious enough to check the prices of the whole package and there I noticed just how many Intel CPU generations were offered for sale and evidently just not moving very much at all.

There is a full set of 12-15th generation CPUs from i3 to i9, even Pentiums and Celerons still available as "new", an Alder-Lake 12300 with 4 cores is listed at €174, the Ultra 7 265KF is only €100 more at 20 cores very likely to deliver 4x the compute power.

It had me wonder, why he chose the i7-14700KF over the Ultra 7 265KF, when that's €30 extra, but I guess gaming may actually be slightly better on the older chip.

What became very obvious, though, is that it's getting very crowded in that price range and when main-line inventory (and most likely the top of the binning Bell curve) needs to be discounted, that nice spread Intel used to milk every customer according to their abilities, turns into a dead inventory cuagmire: when the better chips is only a few bucks away, chances for all those other bins and less refreshed variants finding a buyer, become practically nill.

Having two generations of CPUs being offed is pretty normal, three were mostly seasonal, but this?

The true magnitude of the Intel desaster is probably sitting in warehouses these days and may have AMD's Llano writeoff look like a piece of cake.

It makes it somewhat easier to understand why Intel's buddy Microsoft is so relentless on Windows 11 hardware requirements, it doesn't make it right, through. Nor is it watertight.

Beggars can be choosers these days, at least for CPUs, enjoy it while it lasts.

None of these are really bad at gaming btw., even Alder Lake is quite a bit better than Core 2.

abufrejoval said:

It got me curious enough to check the prices of the whole package and there I noticed just how many Intel CPU generations were offered for sale and evidently just not moving very much at all.

I don't know if you know any numbers, I don't, but I'm guessing that intel keeps producing these old chips, anything that isn't marked as 'end of life' (Discontinued) on the intel website is a product intel still actively produces and sells.
So having a good supply of CPUs on the market does not say much about how well or not they sell, it could just be that the supply is good, in stark contrast to everybody else.

abufrejoval said:

What became very obvious, though, is that it's getting very crowded in that price range and when main-line inventory (and most likely the top of the binning Bell curve) needs to be discounted, that nice spread Intel used to milk every customer according to their abilities, turns into a dead inventory cuagmire: when the better chips is only a few bucks away, chances for all those other bins and less refreshed variants finding a buyer, become practically nill.

By the time the chips are at the retailers intel already made their spread, intel isn't selling chips one at a time from their website.

TerryLaze said:

I don't know if you know any numbers, I don't, but I'm guessing that intel keeps producing these old chips, anything that isn't marked as 'end of life' (Discontinued) on the intel website is a product intel still actively produces and sells.

The typical Intel approach has always been to offer a full performance range of products for each generation, often only to cover every niche where a competitor might grow.

Given just how broad that range has become over the last years, that often included parts that weren't actually new, but previous generation parts that were just given a new number to fit into the spread at a matching point.

To my knowledge mobile parts largely remained Alder Lake for Rapter and its Refresh, but they got 13th and 14th generation numbers burned into them, when fabbed.

That Intel might produce 12th and 13th generation parts as new today on the very same fab lines, which also make 14th generation parts, doesn't sound plausible at all to me: what would be the money advantage that they haven't already exhausted via renaming?

So any part selling as 12th or 13th generation today, was produced and packages years ago and has been sitting in a warehouse. 14th gen Intel might continue to make, but they can't afford to reduce production to a trickle nor can they afford huge stockpiles: in high-end chip manufacturing you have to produce at scale or shut down, 25% or 50% utliziation in a fab is a killer, actually only near 100% you make the money you need to stay in business.

TerryLaze said:

So having a good supply of CPUs on the market does not say much about how well or not they sell, it could just be that the supply is good, in stark contrast to everybody else.

When it comes to chips, it's not that different from cars: you won't see Ford making 2020, 2022, 2024 and 2026 models at the same time and on the same assembly lines just to make sure they cover every price segment according to demand.

With 12-14th gen Intels (2020-2024 Fords) still lingering at the dealers when only 15th gen (2026 Ford) is on a differnt assembly line, that means those older models haven't sold. And there is only two ways to get rid of them: scrapping or clear-out sales.

And if the externally and expensively produced i7 265K Ultra is discounted to below 2020-2024 Fords, that can only mean that TMSC is charging more rent for stockpiles kept at their warehouses than Intel charges internally.

I can only conclude that Intel is drowning in insold inventory already and everything points at it getting worse, because the beggars aren't hungry enough to pay beyond what they need.

And those rich enough not to care will simply go with the faster chips from AMD, even if they don't actually need all that Porsche (X3D) horsepower or 400FPS.

TerryLaze said:

By the time the chips are at the retailers intel already made their spread, intel isn't selling chips one at a time from their website.

I don't think it's that simple any more. Not for a long time. Dealers won't stock what they cannot sell so Intel has to insure them against losses, one way or another and including manufacturers, too.

That used to be quite different, Intel could force Atoms on OEMs those didn't want to turn into mainboard and sell below manufacturing price (because Intel wanted to keep ARM out of the PC space), because they wouldn't be given the i7s or i5s otherwise. OEMs either accepted the whole packge or got nothing at all.

AMD changed that with Zen and these days Intel can only get on mainboards and into shops by paying for that path and by playing insurance with money Intel no longer has.

I mind being wrong about this much less than being in Intel's position: who would have thought ten years ago?
But I'm afraid I'm right, which has me rather glad I never have enough money to own shares.