AI data-centre buildout pushes copper toward shortages, analysts warn — only 70% of 2035 demand could be met, 2025 deficit thought to be 304,000 tonnes

Copper producers and market analysts are starting to outline a supply gap that arrives just as hyperscale AI campuses ramp toward record power draws. The International Energy Agency’s latest critical minerals outlook places copper on a path where existing and planned mines meet only about 70% of projected 2035 demand.

Wood Mackenzie expects shortages to appear far earlier, with a 304,000-tonne refined-copper deficit forecast for 2025 and a wider gap in 2026. That trajectory converges with a wave of AI-driven electrical infrastructure, turning a long-standing industrial metal into a practical bottleneck for data-centre expansion. According to Wood Mackenzie, Charles Cooper, speaking to the Financial Times, the “hyperscalers” building data centers are “outbidding grid suppliers on things like transformer units,” piling significant pressure on producers.

Large AI campuses are now routinely designed around blocks of 50 megawatts to 150 megawatts, and industry estimates place copper use at roughly 27 to 33 tonnes per megawatt of installed capacity. A single 100-megawatt site can therefore absorb several thousand tonnes of copper before accounting for the upstream grid reinforcements required to supply it. BHP’s own case studies cite more than 2000 tonnes for an 80 megawatt-class deployment.

Unfortunately, these projects are arriving at the same time many legacy mines are reporting lower ore grades — which have fallen by around 40% since 1991 — and reduced output, leaving operators to either extend decades-old sites or navigate lengthy permitting battles to reach newer deposits.

The FT's reporting on the Resolution Copper project in Arizona illustrates how difficult these extensions have become. The deposit sits beneath land that some Apache tribal groups consider sacred, and although the U.S. Supreme Court cleared a procedural barrier in May, a federal appeals court froze the land-exchange process in August. The partners behind the project have already spent billions of dollars on shafts and infrastructure, yet production remains at least a decade away. Other major projects across Chile, Peru, and Indonesia have faced accidents, drought restrictions, or community opposition during the past year, adding to the instability of near-term supply.

Copper’s price has climbed above $11,000 per tonne, compared with around $8,500 two years ago, and tariffs are reshaping flows into the United States. Refined metal was shipped into the country ahead of new duties, leaving domestic inventories swollen while tightening availability elsewhere. Analysts at JPMorgan expect prices to remain elevated through 2026 as mine disruptions in South America and Southeast Asia coincide with rising industrial demand.

All this is leading to a market leaning heavily on recycling, stockpiles, and incremental gains from existing operations. Urban-mining firms and large miners are reassessing waste piles that were not viable a decade ago, while smelters are contending with ore shortages. Policymakers in the U.S. and Europe have placed copper on updated critical minerals lists, but new smelting capacity remains scarce because facilities are expensive and slow to approve.

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