Unnamed industry analysts quoted by DigiTimes have cut their 2025 forecasts for Nvidia GB200-based NVL72 machines by over 50%, which contradicts almost all shipment projections for AI hardware this year. One important catch is that the analysts slashed sales forecasts only for machines based on Nvidia's Arm processors. Sales of x86-based machines with B200 GPUs for AI and HPC will likely thrive.
Millions of Blackwell AI GPUs to be shipped
The 2025 shipment forecast for GB200 NVL72 cabinets has been lowered from 50,000 – 80,000 to 25,000 – 35,000 units. High-volume shipments will begin in the second quarter and ramp up throughout the year. While the 56% slash looks rather dramatic, it should be noted that 35,000 cabinets with 72 GPUs per cabinet means 2.52 million GPUs will be shipped, which is impressive. Also, these are only Grace Blackwell machines featuring Nvidia's Armv9-based processors. There will also be Blackwell-accelerated systems running x86 processors.
The reasons the analysts halved their forecasts concerning Arm-based GB200 NVL72 cabinet shipments are unknown.
Their industry checks may have revealed that the general interest in Arm-based machines for AI training and inference was overestimated. Or perhaps some companies decided to stick with the good old x86 to not rewrite their software for the Armv9 instruction set architecture.
Perhaps some customers decided not to use NVL72 cabinets due to their power and cooling requirements and switched to less dense cabinets.
It is also possible that some companies decided to slow down procurements of GB200 machines in light of rumors that Nvidia will roll out 50% more powerful GB300 and B300 GPUs six months after the 200-series Blackwell products ship. Of course, the ramp-up of GB300 and B300 products will also take time, so it is unlikely that the Blackwell Refresh cannibalized sales of the original Blackwell designs this dramatically.
AI hardware industry is thriving
The forecasts by analysts somewhat contradict what is going on around the industry. TSMC, which produces Nvidia's Blackwell AI GPUs and most other high-profile AI processors, expects its Q1 revenue to grow nearly 35% year-over-year at the mid-point, mainly due to increasing demand for AI hardware.
Foxconn and Quanta, leading AI server manufacturers, have confirmed that GB200 shipment schedules remain on track, with substantial order volumes continuing as expected. Foxconn is said to have met its delivery targets while contributing to developing GB200 NVL72 cabinets and refining validation processes. Also, to enhance its AI server production capacity, Foxconn invested $128 million through its subsidiary Ingrasys Technology USA to acquire new facilities in California, complementing its existing AI server production sites in Mexico and Texas.
Similarly, Wistron, a key supplier of baseboards for Nvidia's GPUs, is confident about sustained growth in AI server demand through 2025. The company forecasts a double-digit increase in AI server shipments for the first quarter of 202 and triple-digit growth for the entire year. In late 2024, the company received NVL72 server cabinet shipments from many rivals.
